The Changing Aral Sea - Foresight Brief

This foresight brief examines the dramatic ecological decline and partial restoration of the Aral Sea, once the fourth largest inland body of water in the world. The diversion of inflowing rivers for large-scale irrigation since the 1960s led to severe shrinkage. By the late 1980s, the lake’s surface area had halved and its volume had decreased by 75 %, with losses now totalling over 90 %. This collapse destroyed local ecosystems, livelihoods, and public health, brought dust storms, salinisation, loss of biodiversity , and economic ruin. However, targeted restoration measures, in particular the Kok-Aral Dam in Kazakhstan (2005), have revitalised parts of the Lesser Aral Sea, improved water quality, restored fisheries, and secured the livelihoods of the population. The report emphasises the importance of regional cooperation, sustainable irrigation, and integrated water management to address the ongoing water stress.