Assessment of existing and future emissions reduction from the coal sector toward the implementation of the Minamata and Stockholm Conventions

This report evaluates current and future emissions from coal-fired utility and industrial plants across eight emerging economies heavily reliant on coal for energy production. Using plant-specific data and coal characteristics, the study employs quantitative modelling to project atmospheric releases of carbon dioxide and mercury under various scenarios, including business-as-usual, early retirement of older units, and the retrofitting of air pollution control devices. The findings indicate that while coal use is expected to peak by 2030, the young age of existing fleets in several regions presents a significant challenge for rapid decarbonisation and pollutant reduction. Although early retirement is identified as the most effective strategy for mitigation, the research highlights that technical and economic barriers necessitate substantial international investment and strategic management to achieve climate goals.