Emissions gap report 2018 - Key messages

This key messages document outlines critical findings on global greenhouse gas emissions and the growing gap between current national commitments and the reductions needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. It warns that unless countries raise their ambition by 2030, exceeding the 1.5°C warming limit can no longer be avoided. Current trends point to warming of around 3°C by 2100 and beyond. While most G20 members are on track to meet their 2020 pledges, the majority are not on track to meet their 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Global CO₂ emissions rose to a record 53.5 GtCO₂e in 2017 after three years of stagnation and show no signs of peaking. Ambition needs to be roughly tripled for the 2°C target and roughly quintupled for the 1.5°C target. The report calls for stronger NDCs, more effective national policies and expanded engagement of non-state and sub-national actors, whose impact is currently extremely limited and poorly documented. It highlights the untapped potential of fiscal reform, low-carbon innovation and subnational action to close the emissions gap.