Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution and Climate Change for Sustainable Development in Africa - Chapter 2

This document assesses Africa’s future under a baseline trajectory in which current sector trends and policies continue, focusing on emissions, air pollution, climate variables, and related impacts through 2063. It describes the present limitations of air-quality monitoring and emissions estimates, then develops scenario inputs from projected population growth, rising incomes, and urbanization to model agriculture, energy (including households and transport), and waste pathways. Using emissions inventory methods and integrated modelling frameworks (including atmospheric chemistry and Earth system simulations), it projects substantial increases in pollutants such as PM2.5 and ozone, associated with large cumulative premature mortality over 2015–2063 and widespread reductions in crop yields, with notable losses for staple crops by mid-century.