Terminal Evaluation of the UNEP/GEF Project “Conserving, Enhancing and Managing Carbon Stocks and Biodiversity in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone” (GEF ID 4634) (2015-2024)

This report is a Terminal Evaluation of the UNEP/GEF project: Conserving, Enhancing and Managing Carbon Stocks and Biodiversity in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (GEF ID 4634), implemented between 2015 and 2024. The project's overall goal was to enhance conservation, and management of carbon stocks and biodiversity in forest and non-forest lands in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (ChEZ), in Ukraine. The evaluation sought to assess project performance (in terms of relevance, effectiveness and efficiency) and determine the sustainability of its results. The evaluation has two primary purposes: accountability and learning. Data collection methods included: in-depth interviews and document reviews. Data analysis was based on applying triangulated data to assess performance against a reconstructed Theory of Change and its causal pathways. The overall performance rating was ‘Moderately Satisfactory’, the 4th point on a six-point scale. Despite operating under extraordinary constraints, the project achieved most of its planned results, exceeded co-financing targets, and delivered a globally unique model for post-disaster conservation management. Its most enduring contribution is the reframing of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone into a biosphere reserve and international research hub, adding lasting value to global environmental knowledge. The main recommendations to UNEP are: ensure that future projects operating in high-risk or fragile contexts are designed and implemented in line with the GEF Framework for Engagement in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations, strengthen in-country implementation capacity and ensure equitable participation of women, youth, persons with disabilities, displaced populations, and other marginalized groups in future projects. Implementing parties are advised to: safeguard and strengthen transboundary and international scientific partnerships related to the ChEZ by maintaining collaboration through virtual exchanges, joint data platforms, and multilateral research consortia; integrate environmental recovery in the ChEZ into Ukraine’s broader post-conflict reconstruction strategies by positioning the CREBR as a model for ecosystem restoration, monitoring, and resilience; and develop a communication and knowledge management strategy to maintain visibility and gradually position the Chernobyl Biosphere Reserve as a model for post-disaster conservation.