Environment, climate change and security - Foresight brief

This foresight brief examines the links between environmental degradation, climate change and human security using the example of South Sudan. It shows how climate-related stressors such as droughts and floods increase the vulnerability of communities, contribute to displacement and increase the risk of violent conflict. Climate change is presented as a “threat multiplier” that exacerbates existing political, economic and social tensions, while conflict in turn undermines environmental governance and access to resources. The resulting environmental degradation further fuels insecurity and migration. The brief emphasises the urgency of integrating environmental considerations into peacebuilding, disaster risk reduction and post-conflict reconstruction efforts and advocating for ecosystem-based resilience and resource protection in national policies. The real and potential consequences of climate change, such as more frequent forest fires, longer droughts and stronger storms, have already become apparent in global events in Europe, Japan and Australia.