Waterbirds on the Edge: First Circumpolar Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Arctic Breeding Water Birds

This report investigates the potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on water bird species breeding in the Arctic. The study applies a general circulation model to assess breeding conditions for five selected populations and compares the current distribution of twenty-five species against two vegetation scenarios at the time of carbon dioxide doubling. Analysis of historical data demonstrates a significant correlation between mean June temperatures and breeding success for certain goose and wader populations. Key findings indicate that while moderate warming generally favours reproduction, regional cooling in areas like West Greenland poses risks to specific populations. Furthermore, predicted tundra loss due to northward forest shifts significantly threatens the breeding ranges of globally endangered species. These results provide a baseline for future research into adaptive capacities and additional environmental factors.