Emissions Gap Report 2026 - Key Messages

UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return finds that the chance of holding global warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels with no or limited overshoot is gone. The task now is to minimize the duration and magnitude of overshoot and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century. The report looks at a ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming is limited to 1.7-1.8°C. To get onto this pathway, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would have to be cut by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, relative to 2025 levels. Large-scale removals of CO2 from the atmosphere will be required to return to or below 1.5°C.