RT null T1 Emissions Gap Report 2025 A1 United Nations Environment Programme, A2 Olhoff, Anne A2 Christensen, John A2 Burton, Jesse A2 den Elzen, Michel A2 Lamb, William F. A2 Pathak, Minal A2 Rogelj, Joeri A2 Crippa, Monica A2 Guizzardi, Diego A2 Grassi, Giacomo A2 Libonati, Renata A2 Peters, Glen P. A2 Pongratz, Julia A2 Kuramochi, Takeshi A2 Fransen, Taryn A2 Alberti, Caroline A2 Tong, Dan A2 Schumer, Clea A2 Gidden, Matt A2 Höglund Isaksson, Lena A2 Lamboll, Robin K1 greenhouse gas emission K1 emission inventory K1 carbon emission K1 emission level K1 climate change mitigation K1 temperature K1 global warming K1 climate SN 978-92-807-4239-8 YR 2025 FD 2025-11 LK https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/48854 UL https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/48854 NO The sixteenth edition of the Emissions Gap Report finds that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C. This compares to 2.6-2.8°C and 3.1°C in last year’s report. However, methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, and the upcoming withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C, meaning that the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle. Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well-below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C. Reductions to annual emissions of 35 per cent and 55 per cent, compared with 2019 levels, are needed in 2035 to align with the Paris Agreement 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, respectively. Given the size of the cuts needed, the short time available to deliver them and a challenging political climate, a higher exceedance of 1.5°C will happen, very likely within the next decade. The report finds that this overshoot must be limited through faster and bigger reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize climate risks and damages and keep returning to 1.5°C by 2100 within the realms of possibility – although doing so will be extremely challenging. Every fraction of a degree avoided means lower losses for people and ecosystems, lower costs, and less reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal techniques to return to 1.5°C by 2100. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement ten years ago, temperature predictions have fallen from 3-3.5°C. The required low-carbon technologies to deliver big emission cuts are available. Wind and solar energy development is booming, lowering deployment costs. This means the international community can accelerate climate action, should they choose to do so. However, delivering faster cuts requires would require navigating a challenging geopolitical environment, delivering a massive increase in support to developing countries, and redesigning the international financial architecture. NO AcknowledgementsGlossaryForewordExecutive SummaryChapter 1: Introduction – A Year of New Nationally Determined Contributions and the Ten-Year Anniversary of the Paris Agreement1.1 The Focus of This Year’s Report1.2 Significant Progress During the First Ten Years of the Paris Agreement – But Still Far From the Level and Speed NeededChapter 2: Global Emissions Trends2.1 Introduction2.2 Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Continued to Increase in 20242.3 Emissions Continued to Increase Across Major Sectors2.4 Emissions Increased for All but One of the Largest Greenhouse Gas EmittersChapter 3: Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-Term Pledges: The Global Landscape and G20 Member Progress3.1 Introduction3.2 Global Overview of New Nationally Determined Contributions3.3 G20 Emissions Pathways Towards 2035: A Deep DiveChapter 4: The Emissions Gap in 2030 and 20354.1 Introduction4.2 Scenarios for Assessing the 2030 and 2035 Emissions Gap4.3 The Emissions Gaps in 2030, 2035 and 2050 Remain Large4.4 Temperature Implications of the Emissions Gap Stress the Urgency of Immediate Action4.5 Delayed Action Has Implications for 1.5°C PathwaysReferences NO https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2025 DS UN Environment Document Repository RD Sep 20, 2026