Once Burned, Twice Shy? Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El Niño

This report examines the impacts of the 1997–1998 El Niño event and evaluates how countries perceived, forecast, and responded to the associated climate anomalies. It reviews scientific understanding of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and analyses how early warning information was generated, communicated, and used by decision makers. Drawing on case studies from multiple countries, the document assesses physical effects such as drought, rainfall anomalies, and disruptions to agriculture, water supply, and infrastructure, together with social and economic consequences. The report also investigates institutional preparedness, disaster management structures, and policy responses, highlighting issues in forecasting reliability, information dissemination, vulnerability assessment, and coordination among government agencies and international organisations involved in disaster risk reduction.