Exploratory Future Narratives Primer - STAP Advisory Document

This document provides practical guidance on using simple future narratives to improve the design of projects and programs supported by the Global Environment Facility. Prepared by the Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel, it encourages the use of plausible future scenarios to strengthen project resilience and ensure long-term environmental benefits. The guidance addresses a common weakness in project planning, where future trends are often recognized but uncertainties related to climate change, population growth, economic development, and other drivers are rarely considered in project design. By encouraging project developers to examine multiple possible futures during the early planning stage, the document supports more flexible, adaptive, and effective interventions. It presents a practical and resource-efficient approach that improves decision-making, reduces risks associated with uncertainty, and contributes to achieving sustainable and transformational environmental outcomes over the long term.