Emissions Gap Report 2025 - Key Messages

An analysis of available new climate pledges under the Paris Agreement finds that the predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century has slightly fallen, but not by enough to avoid a serious escalation of climate risks and damages. UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target finds that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C. This compares to 2.5-2.8°C and 3.1°C in last year’s report. However, some of the progress is due to methodological updates, and the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement in January 2026 will once wipe out about 0.1°C, meaning the NDCs have barely moved the needle.